IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.7	#254
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.9	#207
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.8	#227

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-3.9	#286

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	3.7%	6.9%	3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.1	14.6	15.2

.500 or above	24.9%	48.5%	21.5%
.500 or above in Conference	32.0%	48.2%	29.6%
Conference Champion	3.4%	7.1%	2.9%
Last Place in Conference	24.3%	13.4%	25.9%

First Four	1.1%	0.9%	1.1%
First Round	3.2%	6.5%	2.7%
Second Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Away) - 12.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 7	3 - 12
Quad 4	8 - 6	11 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 28, 2020	118	@ Old Dominion	L	63-75	13%
Nov 30, 2020	48	@ North Carolina St.	L	66-85	4%
Dec 03, 2020	321	Hampton	W	82-74	76%
Dec 05, 2020	198	@ George Washington	L	68-74	27%
Dec 09, 2020	244	@ Norfolk St.	L	68-72	38%
Dec 12, 2020	6	@ Virginia	L	47-72	1%
Dec 15, 2020	321	@ Hampton	W	79-77	57%
Dec 19, 2020	314	High Point	W	74-67	73%
Dec 22, 2020	268	Fairfield	W	64-63	51%
Jan 02, 2021	152	@ Hofstra	L	69-78	21%
Jan 03, 2021	152	@ Hofstra	L	69-78	21%
Jan 09, 2021	197	Delaware	L	74-75	49%
Jan 10, 2021	197	Delaware	L	74-75	49%
Jan 16, 2021	190	@ Drexel	L	70-77	28%
Jan 17, 2021	190	@ Drexel	L	70-77	28%
Jan 23, 2021	162	College of Charleston	L	69-71	42%
Jan 24, 2021	162	College of Charleston	L	69-71	41%
Jan 30, 2021	184	@ Towson	L	66-73	27%
Jan 31, 2021	184	@ Towson	L	66-73	27%
Feb 06, 2021	249	James Madison	W	80-77	58%
Feb 07, 2021	249	James Madison	W	80-77	58%
Feb 13, 2021	253	@ UNC Wilmington	L	71-74	40%
Feb 14, 2021	253	@ UNC Wilmington	L	71-74	39%
Feb 18, 2021	215	@ Elon	L	69-74	33%
Feb 20, 2021	215	Elon	W	72-71	53%
Feb 27, 2021	163	Northeastern	L	70-72	42%
Feb 28, 2021	163	Northeastern	L	70-72	43%
Projected Record						10 - 17	7 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.1	0.3	1.0	1.0	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0		3.4	1st
2nd										0.0	0.1	1.3	1.8	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0				5.2	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.6	2.7	1.4	0.3	0.0						6.3	3rd
4th								0.0	0.2	2.0	3.6	1.7	0.2	0.0							7.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	2.3	4.2	2.2	0.2	0.0								9.1	5th
6th						0.0	0.3	2.6	4.9	2.3	0.2	0.0									10.4	6th
7th					0.0	0.6	3.1	5.1	2.6	0.3	0.0										11.8	7th
8th				0.1	1.2	3.9	5.7	2.8	0.4	0.0											14.0	8th
9th		0.0	0.4	2.3	4.6	4.9	2.3	0.4	0.0												14.9	9th
10th	0.8	2.5	4.1	4.7	3.6	1.3	0.2	0.0													17.2	10th

Total	0.8	2.5	4.5	7.1	9.4	10.7	11.6	11.2	10.4	9.1	7.8	5.9	3.8	2.7	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
16-2	99.3%	0.3		0.3	0.0
15-3	82.2%	0.7		0.6	0.1	0.0
14-4	66.6%	1.0		0.6	0.3	0.1
13-5	35.4%	1.0		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-6	8.4%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	3.4%	3.4		1.9	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																		0.0		0.0			0.0
17-1	0.1%		28.4%	26.1%	2.3%	12.2											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		3.1%
16-2	0.3%		35.8%	35.8%		13.7											0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.2
15-3	0.8%		30.0%	30.0%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
14-4	1.5%		25.9%	25.9%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	1.1
13-5	2.7%		14.2%	14.2%		14.5														0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
12-6	3.8%		14.3%	14.3%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.1	3.3
11-7	5.9%		8.8%	8.8%		15.3															0.1	0.2	0.2	5.4
10-8	7.8%		7.2%	7.2%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	7.2
9-9	9.1%		3.0%	3.0%		15.8																0.1	0.2	8.9
8-10	10.4%		2.7%	2.7%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.1
7-11	11.2%		1.7%	1.7%		16.0																	0.2	11.0
6-12	11.6%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																0.0	0.1	11.5
5-13	10.7%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
4-14	9.4%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	9.4
3-15	7.1%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	7.1
2-16	4.5%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.5
1-17	2.5%																							2.5
0-18	0.8%																							0.8

Total	100%		3.7%	3.7%	0.0%	15.1											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.1	1.6	96.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%